"It puts a bit of pressure on United. They've got City next week and European games starting in midweek."
Prophetic words from Gary Neville in the wake of Manchester United's 2-2 draw with Everton. While it may only be September, he's not wrong. Pressure is on Michael Carrick and suddenly, this week already feels season-defining.
When the 2026/27 Premier League fixture list came out, United were deemed to have had . Halfway through, they have dropped more points than they have gained.
It only gets tougher from this point on. As Neville rightly points out, United kickstart their Champions League campaign on Thursday night against Azerbaijan champions Sabah, before the first Manchester derby of the season three days later.
Given the nature of the two opponents, you would imagine Carrick will be thinking of rotating on Thursday. That makes it the first time we really see what his squad, rather than his preferred XI, has to offer. But does he have a good enough crop?
The general consensus is that United's business in the transfer market has left them short, with a squad that is unable to cope with three games per week due to an over-reliance on the same names.
According to Transfermarkt, United actually have the second biggest squad in the Premier League. However, the balance of that squad is what creates the problem.
They rank highest with their depth in forward areas. However, they rank eighth in midfield and 10th in defence. Take a deeper look into specialist positions and you find they are ninth in right-back depth and 18th at left-back, a position that is constantly being discussed due to Luke Shaw's injury history.
They can only blame themselves for that problem, mind you. Only Everton and Liverpool have placed less emphasis on investment in their backline than the Red Devils since 2022.
The imbalance is one problem. The other is the gulf in quality between the starting XI and the team after changes are made.
Despite financial restrictions that appear to be imposed within the club, you can't hide from the fact they have the highest net spend of any Premier League side since 2022. Yet, said spending still hasn't built a unit that has genuine competition for places.
Using the Everton game as a lone example, Carrick made his first substitutions in the 70th minute. Below is a breakdown of some of the key changes in data from that point on, and what it would've looked like had it been aligned with United's output in the 70 minutes prior.
Essentially, after the substitutions are made, United's territorial identity shifts. While they play more in the opposition half, it's less meaningful as they aren't finding passes in the final third and there is a decrease in chances created.
They are also getting less involved in duels, therefore inviting pressure on themselves and conceding far more opportunities. Now, granted, you do have to take into account the context of the situation. Everton are chasing the game. It's unlikely to pan out exactly the same over the final 20 minutes as it is in the first 70.
However, it highlights that when Carrick turns to his fringe players, they aren't producing enough for him. The exception is clearly Benjamin Sesko, but one impact sub does not translate to sufficient squad depth.
It's not just against Everton this trend is apparent. You can also see it against Hull.
You may look at that data and think 'but United have actually improved after they made substitutions.' However, four of the starting XI against the Tigers were dropped in the next two games, with Carrick having to utilise his squad in the opener due to players still building up their fitness. The changes he made brought the team closer to the XI that would be picked to face Ipswich and Everton.
Therein lies the problem. Even if Carrick changes fewer than 50 per cent of his team, a drop off in performance arises. The players in question responsible have no choice but to step up or leave Carrick vulnerable this week - and perhaps for the season.
If you're someone like Leny Yoro, Patrick Dorgu, Andrey Santos or Joshua Zirkzee, Thursday night should present the golden opportunity to show your value within the squad.
Of course, all of them would want to play in the derby, but getting the European campaign off on the right foot is a must. The pressure on them to deliver if chosen is as great as it will be on the starting core who will no doubt be picked against City.
Neville spoke about Carrick needing to earn the trust of the fans. So do those aforementioned players. Win in the Champions League and you can put some minds at rest. Fail to deliver and the angst around Old Trafford will only grow.
